Ingredient makers and perfumers are the invisible engine of the beauty industry.
Today, that engine is under strain as the war in Iran disrupts supply chains, weighs on the industry’s largest players, and cuts into momentum from the Arabic fragrance boom, forcing a rethink of sourcing, marketing, and investment decisions.
DSM-Firmenich, one of the largest beauty and fragrance ingredient groups, is navigating the turmoil, just like its peers, as it works to meet the outlook it set just last month. The company guided for organic revenue growth of 2% to 4% in 2026 on the assumption that the conflict would not last for a "prolonged period.”
Nearly two months into the conflict, DSM-Firmenich is working alongside its fragrance and beauty clients to navigate the fallout, increasingly relying on air freight to bypass regional bottlenecks and disrupted trade routes, and building inventories to secure supply.
The group’s President of Global Fine Fragrance, Jonathan Simon, and President of its Beauty and Care division, Parand Salmassinia, spoke with BeautyMatter about the state of the industry as the company approaches the third year of its $41 billion “merger of equals” between DSM and Firmenich. The Middle East sits at the heart of this milestone, with demand reshaping olfactive trends and regional instability putting pressure on sourcing and distribution channels.
“The Middle East is a region where we are reasonably exposed, and we’re observing a true slowdown, but it’s not collapsing,” Simon said, referring to a market that generates about €250 million ($295 million) in annual revenue for the group, out of roughly €9 billion ($10.6 billion) in total sales.
With logistical disruptions unfolding, some brands are delaying launches, holding back new fragrances rather than debuting them into an uncertain market that could blunt the impact of high-profile releases.
“There have been some fragrance launches pushed back by a few months to ensure they debut at the right moment,” Simon said, referring to the impact of the conflict on global fine fragrance, a division he has led since last year. “So this is affecting us, but not in a material way.”
Within its beauty and care segment, DSM-Firmenich is reinforcing its ingredients network by diversifying sourcing and formulations to reduce reliance on any single input.
At the same time, the group is also working closely with beauty partners to safeguard launch schedules and marketing plans, building stock and securing supply routes to support high-stakes, “super-expensive” rollouts.
“Our clients say: ‘You do half, and we’ll do the other half,’” Salmassinia told BeautyMatter. “We haven’t heard about any big launches being pushed back, but if this [conflict] continues, I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens.”
For now, the head of the beauty business views the disruption as a source of delays rather than a threat to launches.
“It’s just a matter of timing,” Salmassinia noted, emphasizing that no product launches are expected to be canceled altogether.
On a more optimistic note, she said that the Middle East conflict is unlikely to disrupt the industry’s creative momentum. Instead, it could act as a catalyst for change, accelerating a shift away from fossil fuels.
“As sad and tragic as it could be, I also think it's going to have some positive effects in terms of acceleration towards more sustainable ways of living.”
Simon struck a similar tone as he predicted a slowdown ahead in the fragrance dupes market as the Middle East conflict weighs on the sector—one DSM-Firmenich does not participate in—offering one of the few upsides for the beauty industry, with early signs of strain already emerging among players in that space.
“The crisis has severely hit the dupes market,” he said, without offering any specific examples. Recent data from Pattern showed that Middle Eastern dupe brands surged in sales on Amazon in the first quarter of the year, with Lattafa becoming the top-selling brand, up 7.1% from the fourth quarter of 2025, and Armaf ranking third, behind Versace. “I’m not wishing anything bad to perfume houses, but those specializing in dupes may suffer.”
Simon noted that financial performance is already buckling at several firms, signaling a potential industry-wide shakeout after a recent wave of consolidation among ingredients players through dealmaking.
The landmark DSM-Firmenich merger came shortly after the $26.2 billion tie-up between International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) and DuPont’s Nutrition & Biosciences division in 2021, effectively doubling IFF’s revenue to roughly $11 billion. It also followed Firmenich’s failed hostile takeover of smaller competitor Robertet.
Results from DSM-Firmenich and IFF, both due May 6, followed by Givaudan’s on July 23, will offer further clues on how the Middle East shock is reverberating across the industry.
Beyond the immediate disruption in the broader beauty industry, deeper shifts in consumer taste are reshaping the structure of the fragrance market.
The rise of the dupe segment reflects an industry increasingly stretched between “very, very haute perfumery” and the more accessible end of the spectrum, as Middle Eastern scent profiles gain traction globally and begin to influence how fragrances are formulated more broadly, according to Simon.
“Formulations are shifting toward higher concentrations,” Simon said, acknowledging that stronger perfumes are climbing the rankings on platforms such as Amazon Premium Beauty. “When you look at Amazon, a majority of the top ten perfume brands now come from the Middle East.”
Often built around leathery and woody profiles, these fragrances are typically priced at $50 to $60 and carry concentrations of 25% to 30%, compared with around 20% in the prestige segment.
As a result, fragrance brands are asking DSM-Firmenich to increase the dosage of scents to meet demand for stronger fragrances, as consumer preferences shift toward more intense compositions, driving up costs for beauty companies.
“If you increase the dosage, it has a cost, since you’re adding more oil in the bottles,” Simon said. “I'm always repeating to my teams that the ‘eau de toilette’ of today is the equivalent of the ‘eau de parfum’ twenty years ago.”
Beyond higher concentrations, fragrance profiles are also evolving toward a new olfactive cycle, gradually moving past the dominance of vanilla-driven gourmand scents.
“It won’t be the end of the gourmand, vanilla era, but consumers will begin to see new olfactive directions,” he said.
He expects the next cycle to be defined by mineral, green, and raw notes, with compositions that feel closer to the earth, alongside a renewed interest in florals as vanilla gradually recedes.
“It will be like fashion in the 2000s, but with a twist,” he said. “There is always a twist of modernity that comes with it.”
As conflict, cost pressures, and shifting tastes converge, the beauty industry’s direction will be shaped as much by formulation choices as by how companies adapt their strategies and supply chains.